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The New England Patriots are -10 favorites with an over/under of 47 at the time of our last simulation update. The lines project to a score of NE 28.5, MIA 18.5. BSNblog has simulated this game thousands of times and the average score for both teams in simulations is quite different than what Vegas Lines project. Depending on how they differ there could be substantial value picking one side against the spread or picking the over vs the under. Predictably, the favored Patriots are averaging 472 offensive yards vs 391 for the Dolphins. We update our simulations and projections throughout the day in response to the latest depth charts and injury updates. Currently, these are each team's projected leaders in passing, rushing and receiving:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
PASSING: Tom Brady 26/38 CP-ATT, 299 YD, 1.9 TD, 0.6 INT
RUSHING: Steven Jackson 11 RUSH, 42 YD, 0.4 TD
RECEIVING: Rob Gronkowski 5 REC, 81 YD, 0.6 TD

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Sportsbooks currently have the Patriots listed as 9½-point favorites versus the Dolphins, while the game's total is sitting at 46½.

The Dolphins were a 18-12 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Colts. They failed to cover the -2.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (30) made winners of UNDER bettors.

New England lost its last outing, a 26-20 result against the Jets on December 27. The Patriots failed to cover in that game as a -2.5-point favorite, while the 46 combined points took the game OVER the total.

New England:
Team record: 12-3 SU,7-5-3 ATS
New England is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
New England is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games

Miami:
Team record: 5-10 SU,4-11 ATS
Current Streak: lost 3 straight games.
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games