(10) TCU Horned Frogs @ (16) BYU Cougars
Saturday, October 24, 7:30 p.m. ET
Favorite: TCU -2
At 6-1, BYU probably can’t dream too big in the BCS anymore. Its loss to Florida State crushed that hope. However, the Cougars’ crucial home matchup against TCU gives them a glimmer of hope for the Mountain West crown and beyond.
BYU, a home underdog, needs its potent offense to fire on all cylinders against a tough TCU defense this Saturday. Quarterback Max Hall showed against Oklahoma that he can be a big-game passer against tough defenses. He turns over the ball too much (10 interceptions) but his risk taking pays off plenty as well; Hall has 16 touchdown passes this season, five of which went to favorite target Dennis Pitta. The Cougars can beat you on the ground too; Harvey Unga has been a standout in 2009, running for nine scores and averaging 95.8 rushing yards per game.
Brigham Young’s rushing attack will be crucial, as TCU will likely hurry Hall all night. The stingy Horned Frogs allow just 13.6 points per game and even showed their teeth in road matchups versus Clemson and Virginia. Their unquestioned leader is Jerry Hughes, who has eight sacks this season, including three last week. He’ll do his best to terrorize Hall and continue to boost his NFL odds of being a first-round pick.
TCU needs its defense to come through as always because its offense is, well, flat. Add up quarterback Andy Dalton’s per-game average (203.8 yards per game) with leading rusher Joseph Turner’s average (66.5 yards) and you’d still be about 25 yards short of what Max Hall alone does for BYU – 295.6 passing yards per game.
The Horned frogs likely won’t move the ball well enough to win on the road – even though BYU’s defense isn’t great by any means. I like the home team to ride its offense to a minor upset (unlike the Angels’ World Series odds of doing the same).
Pick: BYU +2
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