No sportsbook event will capture more betting attention on Tuesday than the one-game playoff in Major League Baseball. After tying through 162 games, the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins play one elimination match for the American League Central crown and the right to face the Yankees later this week. Let’s end the regular season of MLB picks on a high note, shall we? Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04) vs Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36)
Tuesday, October 6, 5:07 p.m. ET
Online sports betting odds: Tigers +148, Twins -168
By most fans’ accounts, the Detroit Tigers are the higher-profile ballclub and better suited to face the New York Yankees in the ALDS. After all, they boast star hitters like Miguel Cabrera and Curtis Granderson and a Cy Young candidate in Justin Verlander. They even have a Rookie of the Year candidate taking the hill in Rick Porcello. They’re great picks on Tuesday, right?
Wrong.
Porcello isn’t just a rookie – he’s a rookie pitching in the biggest game of his career, a nationally televised affair, on the road. While he finished the year strongly, going 5-2 in August and September, he’s just 6-6 on the road compared to 8-3 at home. In two starts at Minnesota this season, Porcello is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA. During those two games, the Twins hit .349 off him and he served up two homers.
Scott Baker’s overall numbers are average and the Tigers knocked him around to the tune of a 6.75 ERA this season. However, Baker was outstanding in the second half, going 8-2 with a 3.21 ERA. He’s found his groove and showed it against the Tigers last week, shutting them out for five innings.
Baker should get solid run support. As much as the Twins aren’t characterized as an offensive team, they had four players top 25 homers and 90 RBI this season. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel form a stable middle-of-the-order core that could hurt Porcello.
Go with the team playing better baseball right now and playing at home. Pick Minnesota.
Betting services recommend: Twins -168
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