Few sportsbook events generate excitement like the Major League Baseball playoffs, especially with nothing but big-market teams left in the race. The American League Championship Series between the Angels and Yankees starts tonight; let’s make picks for Games 1 and 2. Game 1: Tonight, 7:57 p.m. ET
MLB picks odds: Angels +157, Yankees -177
John Lackey (1-0, 0.00) vs C.C. Sabathia (1-0, 1.35)
Game 1 is tough to forecast since (a) each team sends its ace to the hill and (b) surprisingly, each ace has a spotty history against his opponent. John Lackey really found himself with the Angels after the All-Star break this season, going 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA, but the Yankees give him trouble. Some media coverage hypes Lackey’s dominance of Alex Rodriguez – Lackey holds him to a .174 lifetime average – but that’s simply hype. The more important numbers are those of Jorge Posada (.414), Mark Teixeira (.388), Derek Jeter (.341) and Johnny Damon (.333), all of whom play extremely well against Lackey.
Unlike anyone betting against the Rams’ NFL odds, C.C. Sabathia won’t have a cakewalk tonight either. Sure, he was among baseball’s best pitchers down the stretch, going 11-2 after the All-Star break, but the Angels always play him tough. He’s just 5-7 against them in 14 career starts and he went 0-2 against them this season, allowing nine runs over 13.1 innings. Torii Hunter has 17 RBI off Sabathia in just 68 at-bats.
However, factoring in home-field advantage and a superior bullpen, I still think Sabathia has more going for him tonight.
Betting software recommends: Yankees -177
Game 2: Saturday, October 17, 7:57 p.m. ET
MLB picks odds: No line
Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60) vs A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04)
Power pitcher A.J. Burnett gets the nod for New York Saturday and I like the matchup for him. He’s overpowering, striking out batters at a high rate with his mid-90s heat and deadly curve. He also has trouble controlling his filthy stuff; he walked a disgusting 97 batters this season. Burnett’s control won’t hurt him against the Angels the way it does some teams, however. Los Angeles can rake but most of its hitters are free-swingers; Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu are exceptions. Free-swingers are more likely to chase hard-breaking stuff so Burnett won’t get punished as much as he usually does for missing the strike zone.
It’s hard to feel confident in Joe Saunders. He usually finds a way to win but he’s as homer-prone as any starter in baseball and the Yankees have rocked him in the past; he has a 6.28 ERA against them. Expect the Yankees to rock Saunders – especially A-Rod, who bats .500 off him lifetime and is on fire right now.
Betting software recommends: Yankees
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