BSNblog

Offshore sportsbook lines have Jackson as a -300 favorite over Jardine (+240). Strangely enough, online betting fans could argue that Jackson should be a bigger favorite or that Jardine should be less of an underdog. Overall, that likely means the lines are right, but here's my logic:

While Jardine isn't the world-class fighter Jackson is, and he did get his clock cleaned in under a minute by both Wanderelei Silva (who Jackson demolished) and Houston Alexander, his greatest success has come against counterpunchers (Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell). Since Jackson is counterpuncher, Jardine is actually an awkward matchup for him. Rampage, who reportedly turned down a title shot against Rashad Evans so he could first battle Jardine in a UFC betting "tuneup," should be careful not to look past Jardine.

On the other hand, Jardine can't just lump Jackson in with Griffin and Liddell, neither of whom was in his prime when Jardine beat him (Griffin wasn't there yet, Liddell was past his prime). Jackson is still at or close to the top of his game and he's smart enough to know that Jardine will be expecting a counterpunch performance from him in the Jackson vs Jardine odds . Jackson may therefore change his strategy and walk forward on Jardine. It's a good risk to take, since Jardine lacks knockout power and likely won't catch Jackson with a devastating blow.